Roy Halladay has two Cy Young awards, a couple of seconds and a third. He got over 200 wins, and he pitched a no-hitter in the post-season. His career winning percentage is among the best ever, and his career era+ is 131. He’s going to get in the Hall of Fame; the real question isn’t “if” but “when”.

Halladay’s career was short, and as Goldleaf maintains here (correctly, if myopically) he wasn’t Koufax. He doesn’t need to be Koufax to get in the Hall of Fame, of course. What his un-Koufax-ness means, if you ask me, is that he won’t get elected quickly. We discuss players for the Hall so often that it feels as if we should establish a few categories for these discussions, such as

– In or Out… this is what we usually do
– How long will it take? … this is what I like to do
– Will he or should he? … this appears, as I see it, as the key question that needs to be asked at the beginning of the discussion

The first two questions work together, I think. The mainstream media seems to completely miss this factor when they discuss Hall of Fame candidates, which creates false interest in two categories of players: the nearly voted in (Morris) and the nearly dead (Santo). These categories dominate the discussion, along with one other, which applies to the third question.

Will he or should he…. if the question is “should” as most of us prefer, then the discussion invariably lands at steroids and Pete Rose – and some well meaning but overly inflated ego will start making rules for induction that have nothing to do with the real Hall of Fame. If the question is “will” as I prefer, then the discussion invariably lands at “how long?” which I think is more fun to discuss. Nobody else needs to care what I think is fun, of course, but this question ‘angle’ is also rooted in reality. I personally would love to see some of our research experts ask the question that way – not “in or out” and “should” – but “how long?” and “will” as in “will he get in, and if so how long is it going to take?”

Just to put a cherry on top, I personally think Halladay needs to book his hotel around 2032 – assuming he doesn’t make a comeback. His chances of making the Hall of Fame are 100% as long as doesn’t get caught with Selig’s wife or girlfriend or say something off-color or bet on baseball or take Flintstone vitamins or a schedule two drug or knock over a liquor store or…